Estimating the impact of low temperature on African swine fever virus transmission through contaminated environments.

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is the cause of an infectious disease in pigs, which is difficult to control. Long viability of ASFV has been shown for several contaminated materials, especially under low temperature. Therefore, when pigs are exposed to a contaminated environment, new infections could occur without the presence of infectious individuals. For example, a contaminated, poorly washed, empty livestock vehicle poses a risk to the next load of pigs. A quantitative stochastic environmental transmission model was applied to simulate the change in environmental contamination levels over time and calculate the epidemic parameters through exposure-based estimation. Due to the lack of experimental data on environmental transmission at low temperatures, we performed a non-linear fit of the decay rate parameter with temperature based on a literature review. Eventually, 16 scenarios were constructed for different temperature (at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, or -10 °C) and duration of empty periods (1, 3, 5, or 7 days) after the environment had been contaminated. We quantified the variation in the contamination level of the environment over time and the probability of newly added recipients getting infected when exposed to the environment after the empty period. As a result, the transmission rate parameter for ASFV in pigs was estimated to be 1.53 (0.90, 2.45) day-1, the decay rate parameter to be 1.02 (0.73, 1.47) day-1 (at 21 °C), and the excretion rate parameter to be 2.70 (2.51, 3.02) day-1. Without washing and disinfecting, the environment required 9, 14, 24, 54 days to reach a low probability of causing at least one new case (<0.005) at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, -10 °C, respectively. In addition, the method proposed in this paper enables assessment of the effect of washing and disinfecting on ASFV environmental transmission. We conducted this study to better understand how the viability of ASFV at different temperatures could affect the infectivity in environmental transmission and to improve risk assessment and disease control strategies.

SWOT analysis of risk factors associated with introduction of African Swine Fever through vehicles returning after export of pigs.

Denmark is a major pig exporter and applies a high level of biosecurity, with washing and disinfecting stations for returning livestock vehicles. The introduction of African Swine Fever (ASF) would have significant economic consequences related to loss of export of live pigs and products thereof. In this study, we focused on the role of empty livestock vehicles returning after exports of pigs for the introduction of ASF. Initially, the current components and measures related to export of livestock were described. Next, analyses of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) were conducted, covering the components and measures identified. Then, export of pigs was described either through assembly centers or directly from farms. Washing and disinfection, as required and undertaken at the designated stations, constitutes the most important among all risk-reducing measures identified. Recommendations are to: (1) ensure the quality of washing and disinfection through staff training; (2) find new, safe, and more efficient disinfectants; (3) ensure the required temperature, and therefore effect, of the disinfectant and water. It was impossible to assess, the influence of export through assembly centers compared to direct transport. However, through SWOT analyses we identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two pathways. Moreover, components/measures with risks of unknown sizes are also discussed, such as vehicles undertaking cabotage and the current vehicle quarantine periods.

Comparison of Alternative Meat Inspection Regimes for Pigs From Non-Controlled Housing - Considering the Cost of Error.

Denmark has not had cases of bovine tuberculosis (bovTB) for more than 30 years but is obliged by trade agreements to undertake traditional meat inspection (TMI) of finisher pigs from non-controlled housing to detect bovTB. TMI is associated with higher probability of detecting bovTB but is also more costly than visual-only inspection (VOI). To identify whether VOI should replace TMI of finisher pigs from non-controlled housing, the cost of error - defined here as probability of overlooking infection and associated economic costs - should be assessed and compared with surveillance costs. First, a scenario tree model was set up to assess the ability of detecting bovTB in an infected herd (HSe) calculated for three within-herd prevalences, WHP (1, 5 and 10%), for four different surveillance scenarios (TMI and VOI with or without serological test, respectively). HSe was calculated for six consecutive 4-week surveillance periods until predicted bovTB detection (considered high-risk periods HRP). 1-HSe was probability of missing all positives by each HRP. Next, probability of spread of infection, Pspread, and number of infected animals moved were calculated for each HRP. Costs caused by overlooking bovTB were calculated taking into account Pspread , 1-HSe, eradication costs, and trade impact. Finally, the average annual costs were calculated by adding surveillance costs and assuming one incursion of bovTB in either 1, 10 or 30 years. Input parameters were based on slaughterhouse statistics, literature and expert opinion. Herd sensitivity increased by high-risk period and within-herd prevalence. Assuming WHP=5%, HSe reached median 90% by 2nd HRP for TMI, whereas for VOI this would happen after 6th HRP. Serology had limited impact on HSe. The higher the probability of infection, the higher the probability of detection and spread. TMI resulted in lowest average annual costs, if one incursion of bovTB was expected every year. However, when assuming one introduction in 10 or 30 years, VOI resulted in lowest average costs. It may be more cost-effective to focus on imported high-risk animals coming into contact with Danish livestock, instead of using TMI as surveillance on all pigs from non-controlled housing.

Spatio-temporal modeling of the invasive potential of wild boar--a conflict-prone species-using multi-source citizen science data.

Denmark was considered not to have an established population of free-ranging wild boar. Today, sporadic observations of wild boar challenge that view. Due to its reservoir role for economic devastating swine diseases, wild boar represents a potential threat for Denmark's position as a large pig- and pork-exporting country. This study assessed the prospects of wild boar invasion in Denmark. Multi-source citizen science data of wild boar observations were integrated into a multi-modelling approach linking habitat suitability models with agent-based, spatially-explicit simulations. We tested whether the currently observed presence of wild boar is due to natural immigration across the Danish-German border, or whether it is more likely that wild boar escaped fenced premises. Five observational data sources served as evaluation data: (1) questionnaires sent to all 1625 registered owners of Danish farm land, located in the 60 parishes closest to the border, (2) an online questionnaire, (3) a mobile web-based GPS application, (4) reports in the media or by governmental agencies, and (5) geo-referenced locations of fenced wild boar populations. Data covering 2008-2013 included 195 observations of wild boar, including 16 observations of breeding sows. The data from the Danish Nature Agency and the mailed questionnaires were consistent regarding the location of wild boar observations, while data from the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration, the media and the electronic questionnaires documented individual scattered observations in the rest of Jutland. Most observations were made in the region bordering Germany. It is uncertain whether the relatively few observations represent an established population. Model outcomes suggested that the origin of wild boar in about half of the area with sporadic observations of wild boar could be attributed to spatial expansions from a local Danish population near the border and consisting of wild boar originally of German origin. However, the other half, located distant to the border, were likely a result of animals escaping fenced premises inside the country. The approach serves as a template to assess the status of an invading species and improve the knowledge base for risk assessment and management decision.

Probability of introducing porcine epidemic diarrhea virus into Danish pig herds by imported spray-dried porcine plasma.

BACKGROUND: Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has never been reported in Denmark, but it has been found in Europe, Asia and North America. Ultimately, PEDV has been associated with devastating outbreaks in pig farms. We developed a stochastic simulation model to carry out a quantitative risk assessment and to estimate the annual probability (PPlasma) of introducing PEDV into the Danish pig population, by imported spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP). The model was based on information from literature and Danish feed companies. Moreover testing the batch of raw blood (before the spray-drying) was considered as potential risk mitigation measure in the future. RESULTS: The median PPlasma was 0.2 % (90 % P.I.: 0.003 %; 2.6 %). Hence, the annual probability of introducing PEDV into the Danish pig population by imported SDPP appeared very low, and on average at least one introduction each 500 years - corresponding to 1/0.002 - could be expected. However, if PEDV survived the spray-drying process and storage was insufficient to completely remove the remaining viable virus (e.g. due to storage at low environmental temperatures during a short time period) the PPlasma was 4.7 % (0.06 %; 57.4 %). In that case, on average, at least one PEDV introduction each 21 years could be expected. This probability could be reduced to 0.3 % (0.004 %; 6.0 %) if the raw batch of blood could be tested before drying (corresponding to at least one introduction each 333 years on average). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides preliminary and important information on the probability of introducing PEDV into the Danish pig population by use of SDPP. Currently PED is not a notifiable disease in the EU and uncertainty was present in our estimates due to possible underreporting in EU Member States, from which SDPP is imported into Denmark. In the future, PED might become a notifiable disease, and in such a case, new knowledge could become available on its epidemiology. Moreover, SDPP could be imported more safely if: producers find a way to substantiate freedom from disease (at least) in herds delivering blood for SDPP, the batch of blood tests negative for PEDV and conditions for processing/storage required by the international laws are respected.

Evaluation of a novel enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for serological diagnosis of porcine proliferative enteropathy.

A specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detection of antibodies to the porcine pathogen Lawsonia intracellularis was developed and evaluated using sera from naïve, naturally infected as well as experimentally infected pigs. On the basis of 37 serum samples collected from experimentally infected pigs and 62 serum samples from naturally infected pigs the sensitivity of the ELISA was calculated to 98.0%. The specificity of the test was 99.3%, calculated on the basis of 273 serum samples collected in six herds free of L. intracellularis after medicated eradication. The novel ELISA was a specific and sensitive method for detecting specific antibodies, and may be a good alternative to the existing serological tests for L. intracellularis. It may be usable for diagnosis of proliferative enteropathy and for determination of a herd's epidemiologic status.